This apt aphorism by Wilhelm Busch may have come to mind for many investors in August. Instead of "dolce far niente", this summer month was characterized by turbulence, stock market crashes and subsequent recoveries. Global economic concerns repeatedly drove up volatility on the stock markets. In the first three trading days of the month, the Japanese Nikkei lost almost -20%. Memories of 1987 were awakened when the Nikkei closed with a loss of -12.4% on Monday, August 5, triggering panic selling on the European and American stock markets. However, the markets recovered significantly over the course of the week. Positive impulses came from Jerome Powell, the chairman of the American Federal Reserve, during his speech in Jackson Hole. Although the financial markets were already expecting an easing of monetary policy, Powell confirmed these expectations by saying that "the time has come". He welcomed recent progress in fighting inflation and stressed that economic growth remains on a solid path. His emphasis on the "cooling labour market" is seen as an indication that the Fed will do everything it can to prevent a significant slowdown in economic growth.
In a hectic month, the MSCI USA rose by +2.27% and the MSCI Europe by +1.39%. The MSCI Japan managed to limit its at times devastating losses to -2.76% and the MSCI China posted a gain of +0.78%. US corporate bonds rose by +1.57% (MSCI USD Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index), while their European counterparts gained +0.43% (MSCI EUR Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index).
Our active investment approach has achieved top positions within its peer group and compared to passive, balanced multi-asset ETFs over the past 24 months (Fig. 2).
| Fig. 1 Mo-end return as of August 31, 2024 |
|
|---|---|
| 1-mo | +0.9% |
| YTD | +7.3% |
| 1-yr | +10.1% |
| 2-yrs | +14.0% |
| Since launch (10/18/2021) | +1.3% |
| Rolling 12-mo | |
| On the day of launch (upfront fee) | 0.0% |
| August 31, 2023 - August 31, 2024 | +10.1% |
| August 31, 2022 - August 31, 2023 | +3.2% |
| Source: CleverSoft, August 31, 2024. Due to the longest history and largest volume, we show the data for share class D here (other share classes). The information is historical data and does not represent an indicator of future developments. The management and custodian bank fees as well as all other costs charged to the fund are included in the calculation. |
|
| Fig. 2 Percentile rank* for fund peer group** |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | 3-mo | 2-yrs | 2023 |
| Top 31% | Top 14% | Top 26% | Top 12% |
| 2nd quintile | 1st quintile | 2nd quintile | 1st quintile |
| Source: Morningstar, August 31, 2024. Due to longest history and largest volume, we are showing data for share class D. * For example, a percentile ranking of 20% means that 80% of the funds in the peer group underperformed and 20% performed equal to or better than the BlackPoint Evolution Fund D. ** EAA Fund EUR Moderate Allocation - Global |
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The equity portfolio developed positively in August (Fig.1). As part of active risk management, at the beginning of the month we reduced mainly technology stocks such as Apple, ASML, Microsoft, SAP, Alphabet, Salesforce and Super Micro. As the markets calmed down, we increased the equity exposure again and added three new stocks to the portfolio: Intel, Broadcom and Roper. We completely sold our position in DHL. In addition, we sold bonds from Transurban Finance, Caixabank and Emirates Telecom Group in favour of increasing our equity exposure.
The economic conditions remain robust and support our moderate overweighting of the equity quota.
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