Germany vs. Spain is not a delayed report on the European Football Championship, but the biggest challenge for the ECB now: After cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% in June, the ECB stressed that a further cut would not necessarily follow at the meeting on 12 September. Too aggressive easing carries the risk of reigniting the still high inflation in the services sector. Designing monetary policy for 20 nations is difficult even under the best of conditions; given the current economic divergences, for example between Germany and Spain, it is almost impossible. While Spain is showing promising growth, Germany has been stagnating for two years, and the Ifo business climate index for July is even approaching lockdown lows. The ECB as referee is faced with the dilemma of having to make interest rate decisions for the benefit of one side while the other suffers. Which brings us back to the parallel of the football match a few weeks ago.
In a turbulent month, the MSCI USA rose by +1.17% and the MSCI Europe by +1.11%, although technology stocks performed weaker in July (MSCI World IT Index -2.09%). The Japanese MSCI lost -1.05%, the Chinese MSCI -2.19%. American corporate bonds rose by +2.38%, European ones by +2.04%.
The equity portfolio and the bond portfolio developed positively in July (Fig. 1).
| Fig. 1 Mo-end return as of July 31, 2024 |
|
|---|---|
| 1-mo | +0.1% |
| YTD | +6.3% |
| 1-yr | +7.4% |
| 2-yrs | +11.0% |
| Since launch (10/18/2021) | +0.3% |
| Rolling 12-mo | |
| On the day of launch (upfront fee) | 0.0% |
| July 31, 2023 - July 31, 2024 | +7.4% |
| July 31, 2022 - July 31, 2023 | +2.7% |
| Source: CleverSoft, July 31, 2024. Due to the longest history and largest volume, we show the data for share class D here (other share classes). The information is historical data and does not represent an indicator of future developments. The management and custodian bank fees as well as all other costs charged to the fund are included in the calculation. |
|
In March, the stock portfolio recorded further growth. Consumer goods companies such as Target and Dutch Brothers as well as the payment service provider PayPal topped the list of winners. However, shares in companies such as Zscaler, Crispr Therapeutics and Zoetis in particular suffered losses. Shares from Upstart, Visa, Novo Nordisk, SAP and Microsoft were once again purchased. The bond portfolio also achieved further increases in value; positions with higher risk premiums or long maturities were particularly in demand. Only a Swedish covered bond, medium-term US government bonds and a bond from the telecommunications company Altice saw lower demand. Intermediate-term US Treasury bonds were sold in March.
We are currently concentrating on the controlled expansion of our equity positions, with the demanding valuations suggesting at least a cautious approach.
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