"History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes." This often-quoted aphorism is attributed (probably mistakenly) to Mark Twain and succinctly describes the fact that human nature remains largely constant over the years. Reactions to certain situations are therefore similar, provided that the initial conditions are the same. Fears that the current stock market rally shows parallels to the dotcom bubble are understandable, but so far do not fulfil the postulate of similar initial conditions in two key points: firstly, the enormous profitability of the current big tech companies and secondly, the generally calm level of stock volatility. However, it must also be noted in this context that at the time of the dotcom bubble, many technology companies were still in their infancy and can now build on decades of experience, provided they have survived to this day (survivorship bias).
Under these conditions, the MSCI USA rose by 3.45%, driven by IT companies, which consequently also caused the MSCI World IT Index to rise by 8.72%. The Japanese MSCI followed with slightly less strength at 1.54%. The MSCI Europe was unable to participate in the global upward trend at -1.12%, nor was the MSCI China at -2.84%. Both American corporate bonds at -0.49% and European corporate bonds at -1.21% suffered losses.
Our active investment approach has achieved top positions within its peer group and compared to passive, balanced multi-asset ETFs over the past 24 months (Fig. 2).
| Fig. 1 Mo-end return as of June 30, 2024 |
|
|---|---|
| 1-mo | +2.6% |
| YTD | +6.2% |
| 1-yr | +10.0% |
| 2-yrs | +15.6% |
| Since launch (10/18/2021) | +0.3% |
| Rolling 12-mo | |
| On the day of launch (upfront fee) | 0.0% |
| June 30, 2023 - June 30, 2024 | +10.0% |
| June 30, 2022 - June 30, 2023 | +4.5% |
| Source: CleverSoft, June 30, 2024. Due to the longest history and largest volume, we show the data for share class D here (other share classes). The information is historical data and does not represent an indicator of future developments. The management and custodian bank fees as well as all other costs charged to the fund are included in the calculation. |
|
| Fig. 2 Percentile rank* for fund peer group** |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | 1-mo | 2-yrs | 2023 |
| Top 29% | Top 7% | Top 28% | Top 12% |
| 2nd quintile | 1st quintile | 2nd quintile | 1st quintile |
| Source: Morningstar, June 30, 2024. Due to longest history and largest volume, we are showing data for share class D. * For example, a percentile ranking of 20% means that 80% of the funds in the peer group underperformed and 20% performed equal to or better than the BlackPoint Evolution Fund D. ** EAA Fund EUR Moderate Allocation - Global |
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In March, the stock portfolio recorded further growth. Consumer goods companies such as Target and Dutch Brothers as well as the payment service provider PayPal topped the list of winners. However, shares in companies such as Zscaler, Crispr Therapeutics and Zoetis in particular suffered losses. Shares from Upstart, Visa, Novo Nordisk, SAP and Microsoft were once again purchased. The bond portfolio also achieved further increases in value; positions with higher risk premiums or long maturities were particularly in demand. Only a Swedish covered bond, medium-term US government bonds and a bond from the telecommunications company Altice saw lower demand. Intermediate-term US Treasury bonds were sold in March.
We are currently concentrating on the controlled expansion of our equity positions, with the demanding valuations suggesting at least a cautious approach.
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