How much truth is there in stock market wisdom? The old stock market rule "Sell in May and go away" gained popularity due to its hit rate. This year, it might be worth changing your perspective with the motto: Buy in May and stay away. Because anyone who did not invest in May this year according to the traditional rule missed out on amazing developments. Major leading indices such as the S&P 500 held on to record levels and confirmed a broad upward trend, driven by positive corporate figures from the technology sector. Even if inflation in Europe and the USA has not recently fallen at the desired rate, reaching the 2% target seems increasingly possible. The long-awaited interest rate cuts have therefore only been postponed and have been positively anticipated by many bond markets.
Under these conditions, the MSCI USA rose by 4.6% in May. The Japanese MSCI followed with slightly less strength at 1.1%, the MSCI Europe at 2.5% and the MSCI China at 2.1%. The undisputed leader was once again the MSCI World IT Index at 8.5%. US corporate bonds gained 1.9%, while European corporate bonds were unchanged.
In May, the equity portfolio developed slightly positively. Dynamic companies such as Dutch Brothers and Trade Desk performed well. In contrast, companies in the discretionary consumer goods sector such as AirBnB and the tech companies Shopify and Salesforce suffered losses. The bond portfolio also increased in value. Corporate bonds with higher risk premiums were particularly in demand, while long-term government bonds were weaker. Shares in Merck & Co., Kinsale, Meta and Microsoft were purchased. On the bond side, securities from Takeda Pharmaceutical, Stellantis and Mondelez were sold, and a subordinated UniCredit security was bought back from the issuer.
We are maintaining the overweight in interest-bearing securities, but are selectively increasing our equity exposure, considering the valuation levels and imponderables.
| Fig. 1 Mo-end return as of May 31, 2024 |
|
|---|---|
| 1-mo | +0.07% |
| 3-mo | +0.05% |
| 6-mo | +6.84% |
| YTD | +3.55% |
| 1-yr | +7.83% |
| Since launch (10/18/2021) | -2.20% |
| Rolling 12-mo | |
| On the day of launch (upfront fee) | 0.00% |
| 05/30/2023 - 05/30/2024 | +7.83% |
| 05/30/2022 - 05/30/2023 | +0.77% |
| Source: CleverSoft, 05/31/2024. Due to the longest history and largest volume, we show the data for share class D here (other share classes). The information is historical data and does not represent an indicator of future developments. The management and custodian bank fees as well as all other costs charged to the fund are included in the calculation. |
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