The situation is very reminiscent of the dot-com bubble in 2000: A single company, Microsoft, is now worth 1.9 times as much as all DAX companies combined. This is happening even though the DAX itself is rushing from one peak to the next. Despite some worrying parallels, the comparison still falls short. A favourable financial environment (cheap money) is an essential prerequisite for the creation of a speculative bubble. Currently, interest rates are at high levels that we have not seen in years. Nevertheless, we are experiencing an extraordinary constellation: the market is reaching new highs despite supposed overheating, while at the same time there is the prospect of money becoming cheaper soon. Against this background, the upswing, for example in technology stocks, could still have further scope. There are valid arguments for the perspective of investors who feel uncomfortable with the “overstretched” company metrics (valuation, profit, etc.). Perhaps the tongue-in-cheek advice of the famous economist John Maynard Keynes will help at this point: “The market can behave irrationally for longer than you remain solvent.”
Under these conditions, the MSCI USA rose by +5.2% in February, almost on a par with the Japanese MSCI with +5.4% and surpassed by the MSCI China with +8.5%. The MSCI Europe had to be content with a slightly lower performance of +1.8%. American corporate bonds posted an overall decline of -1.5%, like European corporate bonds at -0.9%.
The robustness and adherence to the strategy of our decisions are reflected not only in our absolute performance figures (Fig. 1), but above all in comparison with our peer group** (Fig. 2) and with passive, balanced multi-asset 60/40 ETFs.
| Fig. 1 Mo-end return as of 02/29/2024 |
|
|---|---|
| 1-mo | +1.25% |
| 3-mo | +6.78% |
| 6-mo | +6.23% |
| YTD | +3.49% |
| 1-yr | +11.09% |
| Since launch (10/18/2021) | -2.25% |
| Rolling 12-mo | |
| On the day of launch (upfront fee) | 0.00% |
| 02/28/2023 - 02/29/2024 | +11.09% |
| 02/28/2022 - 02/28/2023 | -5.58% |
| Source: CleverSoft, 02/29/2024. Due to the longest history and largest volume, we show the data for share class D here (other share classes). The information is historical data and does not represent an indicator of future developments. The management and custodian bank fees as well as all other costs charged to the fund are included in the calculation. |
|
| Fig. 2 Percentile rank* for fund peer group** |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | 3-mo | 1-yr | 2-yrs | 2023 |
| Top 14% | Top 14% | Top 18% | Top 20% | Top 12% |
| 1. quintile | 1. quintile | 1. quintile | 1. quintile | 1. quintile |
| Source: Morningstar, 02/29/2024. Due to longest history and largest volume, we are showing data for share class D. * For example, a percentile ranking of 20% means that 80% of the funds in the peer group underperformed and 20% performed equal to or better than the BlackPoint Evolution Fund D. ** EAA Fund EUR Moderate Allocation - Global |
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Our equity portfolio was once again convincing in February and was not changed. The bond portfolio lost some value. In particular, the Fed's continued hesitation regarding interest rate cuts is dampening market sentiment. With the premise of shortening the duration in the portfolio somewhat, we bought US government bonds with a maturity of 2025 and increased our exposure to government bonds of the Dominican Republic. Investments were also made in corporate bonds from Sampo OYJ, Becton Dickinson and Euroclear Investments. Bonds from Thermo Fisher, CNH Industrial and Essity were sold.
The positive macroeconomic data is currently supporting the equity side. However, the ambitious valuations suggest at least a prudent portfolio orientation.
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