The situation is reminiscent of the play “Waiting for Godot”: For weeks, the financial markets have been waiting for stimulus from an interest rate cut or at least for a reliable signal from the central banks as to when that might happen. So far in vain. In a deliberately non-committal central bank manner, the Fed states that although inflation has fallen faster than expected, it is not sure whether this trend can be sustained. However, this would be the prerequisite for a timely interest rate cut. Although the interest rates went up in the elevator, they took the stairs on the way down.
Investors must continue to be patient and can, for the time being, stick to the old stock market adage "Like January, like the year." Since 1938, this has been proven right in 74% of cases for the American market. The MSCI USA rose by +1.4% in January, the MSCI Europe also rose by +1.5%, outperformed by the Japanese MSCI with +8.5%. China remains in crisis mode and is fighting not only a real estate crisis but also deflation. As a result, the MSCI China fell by -10.5%. While American corporate bonds (MSCI US IG Corporate Bond Index) remained unchanged, their European counterparts (MSCI EUR IG Corporate Bond Index) suffered discounts of -1.5%.
Despite challenging market conditions, our active investment concept outperformed the peer group** (fig. 1) and particularly passive, balanced multi-asset ETFs over the past 24 months and especially since 1 year.
Percentile rank* for fund peer group** in %
|BlackPoint Evolution Fund D
|Source: Morningstar, 01/31/2024 | Due to longest history and largest volume, we are showing data for share class D
* For example, a percentile ranking of 20 means that 80% of the funds in the peer group underperformed and 20% performed equal to or better than the BlackPoint Evolution Fund D.
** EAA Fund EUR Moderate Allocation - Global
Our equity portfolio was once again impressive in January. Technology companies such as Crowdstrike, SAP and Meta as well as specialist insurer Kinsale topped the list of winners. However, losses were recorded in dynamic stocks such as Upstart and Dutch Brothers as well as in companies with a business focus in China, namely Alibaba, Baidu, Estée Lauder and Daqo. The bond portfolio also recorded an increase in value. Positions with higher risk premiums and short maturities enjoyed strong demand. Long-term government bonds struggled with weaker demand due to fluctuations in interest rate expectations. We bought shares in Deutsche Börse and sold shares in Estée Lauder. On the bond side, in addition to US government bonds, we also purchased Croatian, Hungarian and Brazilian government bonds.
While we are still taking a wait-and-see approach on the equity side, we are much more constructive on the bond side and are building up positions.
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