Right now, it feels like we're playing a part in a scene from an American Western movie. Like the film " The Cheyenne Social Club", politics seems to be narrowed down to a specific deadline or turning point. The recurrent US budget dispute takes on a predictably dramatic flavor. Just in the nick of time, the US Congress prevented a government shutdown this past Sunday, shortly before midnight. Chuck Schumer, the Senate Majority Leader of the Democrats, referred to this day as a "good day for America". There were emotional moments in the House of Representatives. Both Congressional chambers approved a temporary budget plan which will finance the government until mid-November. Surprisingly, this plan provides more funds for natural disasters and fewer social cuts than the Republicans initially proposed. However, support for Ukraine was left out. Some Republican forces ensured the deferral of this decision, leaving the US's financial support for Ukraine in limbo.
Currently, guidelines are being set by the US budget, global growth concerns, interest rate risks, and predictions of a "soft landing" in the US. The Chinese stock market (MSCI China) dropped by 3.1%, while the MSCI USA decreased by 4.8% and the MSCI Europe lost 1.6%. In contrast, Japan (MSCI Japan) recorded only minimal losses of 0.4% (all price indices in local currency).
Despite the challenging market conditions, our active and fundamentals-led investment approach has demonstrated outperformance compared to its peer group (Fig. 1) and in particular to passive balanced multi-asset ETFs over the last 12 months and particularly year-to-date.
Percentile rank* for fund peer group** in % for month-end return
|BlackPoint Evolution Fund D||7||60||26||23|
|Source: Morningstar, 09/30/2023 | Due to longest history and largest volume, we are showing data for share class D
* For example, a percentile ranking of 20 means that 80% of the funds in the peer group underperformed and 20% performed equal to or better than the BlackPoint Evolution Fund D.
** EAA Fund EUR Moderate Allocation - Global
In September, nevertheless, the stock portfolio faced further losses. Stocks from companies such as LVMH, Thermo Fisher, DHL, Apple, and Target were under pressure. On the other hand, companies with positive prospects or a resilient business environment, like Kinsale, Meta, and AirBnB, showed strength. The bond portfolio contributed only a slightly negative factor. Long-term corporate bonds couldn't attract investors, while short-term government bonds from the USA and emerging markets showed gains. The equity ratio was reduced in September due to partial sales in Meta and Trade Desk. Additionally, short and long-term US government bonds were acquired for the bond portfolio.
Concerns about inflation and economic growth are waning, but they remain present. Hence, a cautious portfolio alignment remains crucial.
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