Anyone in Germany who currently turns on the television or opens a major daily newspaper is inundated with negative information: economic crisis - deindustrialization - migration crisis - education crisis - construction crisis, etc. The extent to which communication is overloaded, regardless of the direction, is not to be discussed at this point. The fact is, however, that the economy is largely determined by psychology and basic trust. As globally oriented investors, we must try to detach ourselves from the destructive mood in Germany and to develop an image of the global economic outlook that is as objective as possible. Inflation – apart from China – of course remains a burden and continues to keep the central banks in a state of alarm. Nevertheless, the global economy has proven to be robust this year and only Germany is the only western industrialized country to report negative growth. Concerns about growth in China and interest rate risks in Europe and the USA are fuelling nervousness on the financial markets.
Under these conditions, the Chinese equity market (MSCI China) lost -8.5% in August, followed by MSCI Europe at -2.7% and MSCI USA at -1.9%. Only Japan (MSCI Japan) ended the month unchanged (all price indices in local currency).
Despite the difficult market conditions, our active and fundamentally guided investment approach has outperformed. Compared to its peer group (Fig. 1) and compared to passive multi-asset ETFs in the "balanced" category, our approach has impressively demonstrated its superiority.
| Figure 1: Percentile rank* for fund peer group** in % for month-end return |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | 3-mo | 6-mo | 1-yr | |
| BlackPoint Evolution Fund D | 5 | 44 | 8 | 18 |
| Source: Morningstar, 08/31/2023 | Due to longest history and largest volume, we are showing data for share class D * For example, a percentile ranking of 20 means that 80% of the funds in the peer group underperformed and 20% performed equal to or better than the BlackPoint Evolution Fund D. ** EAA Fund EUR Moderate Allocation - Global |
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Nevertheless, our equity portfolio also suffered a decline in August. Both cyclicals and technology companies such as Upstart, Lemonade and PayPal fell in price. On the other hand, the positive outlook for individual companies such as Novo Nordisk, Kinsale and Verisk made a positive contribution to performance. The bond portfolio recorded a slightly negative performance over the month. While corporate bonds and emerging market bonds largely weakened due to rising risk premiums, US government bonds enjoyed positive returns. During the period under review, we invested in an Aareal Bank bond and increased the proportion of US government bonds with short and long maturities.
Concerns about inflation and economic growth are slowly cooling down but keep flaring up. A prudent portfolio positioning therefore still seems appropriate.
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