In the financial world, perfect conditions for the stock market are often described with the fairy tale “Goldilocks and the Three Bears”: Analogous to the porridge in this story, economic growth, at least in the USA, is neither too hot (inflation) nor too cold (recession). The current data also shows a decline in the inflation rate and a stable labour market, nonetheless. The more positive estimates for the expected gross domestic product in the USA for 2023 compared to the beginning of the year are providing additional tailwind.
As a result, the American stock markets confirmed their position as the driving force and rose by +3.3% (MSCI USA), followed by MSCI Europe (+1 .9%) and MSCI Japan (+1.3%). Of note is the Chinese MSCI, which rose by +9.3% (all price indices in local currency) despite ongoing concerns about consumption and the economy.
Despite the difficult market conditions, we have experienced over the past 12 months, our active and fundamentally guided investment approach has outperformed. Compared to its peer group (figure 1) and compared to passive multi-asset ETFs in the "balanced" category, our approach has impressively demonstrated its superiority.
| Figure 1: Peer group percentile rank* in % for month-end return |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | 3-mo | 6-mo | 1-yr | |
| BlackPoint Evolution Fund D | 5 | 17 | 3 | 19 |
| Source: Morningstar, 07/31/2023 | Due to longest history and largest volume, we are showing data for share class D * For example, a percentile ranking of 20 means that 80% of the funds in the peer group underperformed and 20% performed equal to or better than the BlackPoint Evolution Fund D. ** EAA Fund EUR Moderate Allocation - Global |
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The equity portfolio was able to record a pleasing development in July. Technology stocks such as Lemonade, Upstart and Alibaba benefited from the good mood on the financial markets. On the other hand, Estée Lauder was disappointed due to the ongoing weakness in China business and Stryker due to the currently delayed achievement of targets. The bond portfolio also contributed positive performance in July. In detail, corporate bonds and emerging market bonds closed well, while interest rate developments weighed on US government bonds. In July, the equity allocation was increased through acquisitions in Lemonade, Upstart, PayPal, Pfizer, and Estée Lauder. We also added short-dated US government bonds and a Swedish mortgage bond to the bond portfolio.
In the fairy tale, Goldilocks is discovered and must flee the bear house in a hurry. Applied to our portfolio, we do not believe that the bear family will return anytime soon (inflation) but remain cautious for now.
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