Phoenix or Swallow?
The classic 60/40 portfolios in January 2023 must have felt a bit like the miracle bird phoenix. Although declared dead several times and despite simultaneous losses of stocks and bonds in 2022 - mixed funds had their best start to the year in decades.
Lower inflation rates worldwide, the prospect of a "soft landing" in the USA and the expectation of a strengthening Chinese economy made the S&P 500 more expensive by +6.6% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq by as much as +11.6%. Both Europeans and Asians shared this optimism, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +10.4% and the Chinese CSI 300 up +7.5%. At the same time, global bonds (Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index) gained +3.3% (all indices in local currency).
YTD returns in % (stock and bond markets)
|EURO STOXX 50||10.43||10.43|
|€ Gvt. Bond 7-10 yr||3.13||3.13|
|$ Treasury Bond 7-10yr (USD)||3.50||3.50|
|iBoxx EUR Corp Bond||2.71||2.71|
|US Corp 5-7yr (USD)||3.20||3.20|
|Source: Morningstar, Bloomberg, 01/31/2023 / * ETFs|
In the BlackPoint Evolution Fund, disruptive tech and financial companies such as Upstart, Block and Lemonade recorded the strongest performance alongside Chinese stocks such as Alibaba or Baidu. We increased positions in Pfizer, Allianz, PayPal and Daqo. We sold Illinois Tool Works completely, and our investment in Novo Nordisk was reduced. In the bond portfolio, papers from airlines shone due to the renewed increase in travel activity and high-yield bonds. We bought government bonds from Croatia, Romania and the Ivory Coast at attractive levels. The fund allocation is currently 53.2% equities, 37.4% bonds (including 4% short-dated US Treasuries and 2.5% CAT bonds), 1.8% gold/commodities/CO2 emission rights and 7.6% cash.
Despite the brilliant start to the year, there are still many market and geopolitical upheavals to be overcome. While progress in this regard is reflected in the portfolio, we do not neglect an appropriate risk assessment. Because one swallow doesn't make a summer.
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