Who doesn't know the old stock market adage: "The markets are climbing up a wall of worries"? At first glance this might seem truism, but there is a lot of truth hidden in this statement. Throughout the year, investors defined criteria such as peak inflation or functioning supply chains as important factors for a sustainable recovery. However, a sustained improvement in sentiment, i.e., the mood on the stock exchanges, has not yet been identified, as new or recurring crisis scenarios are constantly being worked out.
Under these sometimes-erratic conditions, the S&P 500 held its own in November with a plus of +5.4%, the Euro Stoxx 50 rose by +9.6% and the Nasdaq technology exchange rose by +5.5%. Global bonds (Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index) kept pace with equity markets and returned +4.7%. China equities (CSI 300) broke free from the oppressive Zero Covid sentiment in the country, returning +9.8% (all indices in local currency).
| Illustration 1: YTD returns in % (stock and bond markets) |
||
|---|---|---|
| Stock markets | November | YTD |
| S&P 500 | 5,35 | -14,39 |
| Nasdaq-100 | 5,47 | -26,29 |
| EURO STOXX 50 | 9,60 | -7,93 |
| CSI 300 | 9,81 | -22,01 |
| Bond markets* | ||
| € Gvt. Bond 7-10 yr | 2,14 | -15,78 |
| $ Treasury Bond 7-10yr (USD) | 3,58 | -13,91 |
| iBoxx EUR Corp Bond | 3,46 | -14,42 |
| US Corp 5-7yr (USD) | 4,07 | -11,03 |
| Source: Morningstar, Bloomberg, 11/30/2022 / * ETFs | ||
Depending on the share class, the BlackPoint Evolution Fund gained between +1.20% and +1.33% (-13.3% since the fund was launched on October 18, 2021). Not included here is the fund price increase of around +1.50% on December 1st.
A slower rise in key inflation data, a modest softening in the US labour market and increasing signs of China's Covid policy easing supported markets despite a bearish overall sentiment. In addition to Chinese stocks such as Alibaba and Daqo, European companies scored well with a robust order situation (e.g., ASML, Allianz and LVMH). However, the tipping point had not yet come for our low-weight challengers and disruptors: Lemonade, Upstart, Crowdstrike, and Zscaler saw major falls. Deutsche Post and Twilio were added in November and the existing exposure in LVMH, Allianz, Assa Abloy and Salesforce was increased. We sold completely our investment in UCB. Bonds contributed to the good development due to significantly lower risk premiums, with corporate bonds and government bonds from emerging countries being particularly positive. An Indonesian government bond was sold and senior positions in Goldman Sachs and Caixabank were purchased. The fund allocation is currently 49% equities, 39% bonds (including 6% short-dated US Treasuries and 2.7% CAT bonds), 4% gold/commodities/CO2 emission rights and 8% cash.
The persistently high volatility on the financial markets means that we are acting cautiously towards the end of the year. However, opportunities could be taken in a well-measured manner through selective investments on the bond and stock markets.
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