Goethe, Faust.
The decision seems to have been made for the stock market. With all-time highs continuing, markets – and therefore investors – are increasingly assessing the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months as less. According to a survey by Absolute Strategy Research, 225 fund managers who collectively manage $8 trillion in assets predict a gentle slowdown in the US economy. The US bond market, however, paints a contrasting picture: the persistently strong inversion of the yield curve, in which long-term bonds have lower returns than short-term ones, continues to signal an expected recession. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York regularly publishes the implied probability of recession derived from yield curve analysis. The sobering conclusion is that an impending recession is still to be expected. Here I stand, poor fool that I am, no wiser than before.
The dynamics of the global stock markets developed almost synchronously in March: The MSCI USA rose by +3.1%, closely followed by the Japanese MSCI with +2.9%, the MSCI China with +2.8% and the MSCI Europe with +3.5%. US corporate bonds posted a total gain of +1.3%, comparable to European corporate bonds which gained +1.08%.
Our active investment approach has achieved top positions within its peer group and compared to passive, balanced multi-asset ETFs over the past 24 months, but particularly over the past 12 months (Fig. 2).
| Fig. 1 Mo-end return as of March 2024 |
|
|---|---|
| 1-mo | +1.61% |
| 3-mo | +5.42% |
| 6-mo | +10.49% |
| YTD | +5.38% |
| 1-yr | +12.68% |
| Since launch (10/18/2021) | -0.47% |
| Rolling 12-mo | |
| On the day of launch (upfront fee) | 0.00% |
| 03/28/2023 - 03/28/2024 | +12.68% |
| 03/28/2022 - 03/28/2023 | -6.44% |
| Source: CleverSoft, 03/31/2024. Due to the longest history and largest volume, we show the data for share class D here (other share classes). The information is historical data and does not represent an indicator of future developments. The management and custodian bank fees as well as all other costs charged to the fund are included in the calculation. |
|
| Fig. 2 Percentile rank* for fund peer group** |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | 3-mo | 1-yr | 2-yrs | 2023 |
| Top 17% | Top 17% | Top 24% | Top 25% | Top 12% |
| 1. quintile | 1. quintile | 1. quartile | 1. quartile | 1. quintile |
| Source: Morningstar, 03/31/2024. Due to longest history and largest volume, we are showing data for share class D. * For example, a percentile ranking of 20% means that 80% of the funds in the peer group underperformed and 20% performed equal to or better than the BlackPoint Evolution Fund D. ** EAA Fund EUR Moderate Allocation - Global |
||||
In March, the stock portfolio recorded further growth. Consumer goods companies such as Target and Dutch Brothers as well as the payment service provider PayPal topped the list of winners. However, shares in companies such as Zscaler, Crispr Therapeutics and Zoetis in particular suffered losses. Shares from Upstart, Visa, Novo Nordisk, SAP and Microsoft were once again purchased. The bond portfolio also achieved further increases in value; positions with higher risk premiums or long maturities were particularly in demand. Only a Swedish covered bond, medium-term US government bonds and a bond from the telecommunications company Altice saw lower demand. Intermediate-term US Treasury bonds were sold in March.
We are currently concentrating on the controlled expansion of our equity positions, with the demanding valuations suggesting at least a cautious approach.
Um Ihnen maßgeschneiderte Informationen anzeigen zu können, bitten wir Sie Folgendes einzugeben:
In order to be able to show you tailor-made information, we ask you to enter the following:
Important Information
You can invest in the BlackPoint Evolution Fund directly and securely online and always keep an eye on your investment thanks to daily transparency. This works with just a few clicks via BlackPoint digital, a service offered by FINTEXLAB, a brand of WMD Capital GmbH (HRB 226421 Commercial Register Munich), in cooperation with BlackPoint Asset Management GmbH.