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Fund Reporting #50, 12/2025

Rational Exuberance

Marketing Communication

Anyone familiar with Robert Shiller’s Irrational Exuberance may experience a sense of déjà vu when reviewing current technology valuations — typically expressed through multiples such as revenue or EBITDA relative to listed peers or historical transactions. However, comparisons with the turn of the millennium are of limited relevance. Unlike that period, today’s valuations are supported by tangible fundamentals. Earnings expectations remain robust and are increasingly broad-based beyond the largest technology names, suggesting that the current rally rests on a more durable foundation. Recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve provide additional support, while proposed tax measures by the Trump administration act as a further tailwind. Macroeconomic conditions remain stable and corporate fundamentals are sound. What currently prevails is rational optimism.

Against this backdrop, equity markets ended the period without a clear directional consensus. Europe led performance, gaining 2.6%, while the MSCI USA edged marginally lower by 0.1%. Asia delivered a mixed outcome, with Japan rising 0.9% and China declining 1.5%. Fixed income markets were weaker overall. Government bond prices fell across regions (Europe −0.6%, US Treasuries −0.3%), and corporate bonds also declined modestly in both the US and Europe (−0.2% respectively). All figures are stated in local currency.

Global equity markets proved broadly resilient in 2025 (Fig. 1). However, the pronounced depreciation of the US dollar against the euro meant that returns on US dollar-denominated investments were materially lower for euro-based investors. In fixed income, the recovery continued throughout 2025. Government bonds delivered stable to positive performance, supported by declining inflation expectations and an increasingly predictable monetary policy environment.

Fig. 1, Growth in % Growth in USD Growth in EUR
S&P 500 16.7 2.6
Stoxx Europe 600 - 16.0
MSCI World 19.7 5.4
MSCI Emerging Markets 34.8 18.3
Bl. Global Aggr. Bd Index (ETF*) 8.2 2.6
Bl. Euro Corp. Bd Index (ETF*) - 3.1
Gold* 64.6 45.1
US-Dollar - -11.8

* Source: Onvista, Google Finance, as of December 31, 2025 | * ETF: iShares Core Global Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF, iShares Core € Corp Bond UCITS ETF / Gold in USD: Spot price, Gold in EUR: Troy ounce

 

BlackPoint Evolution Fund

 

Our active investment approach has proven itself over various time periods in recent years (Fig. 2) and has achieved top positions within its fund peer group (Morningstar moderate allocation Global, Fig. 3) – both in the overall comparison and in direct competition with passive, balanced multi-asset ETFs (60/40).

Fig. 2
Mo-end return as of Dec 31, 2025 (%)
1-mo 0.1
YTD +5.8
1-yr +5.8
2-yrs +19.2
3-yrs p.a. +10.0
2024 +12.6
2023 +11.7
Since launch (10/18/2021) +12.6
Rolling 12-mo   
On the day of launch (upfront fee) 0.0
Dec 31, 2024 - Dec 31, 2025 +5.8
Dec 31, 2023 - Dec 31, 2024 +12.6
Dec 31, 2022 - Dec 31, 2023 +11.7
Source: CleverSoft, as of Dec 31, 2025. Due to the longest history and largest volume, we show the data for share class D here (other share classes). The information is historical data and does not represent an indicator of future developments. The management and custodian bank fees as well as all other costs charged to the fund are included in the calculation.

 

Fig. 3
Percentile rank* for Morningstar fund peer group**
2-yrs 3-yrs 2024 2023
Top 18 % Top 14 % Top 14 % Top 12 %
 1st quintile  1st quintile 1st quintile 1st quintile
Source: Morningstar, as of Dec 31, 2025. Due to longest history and largest volume, we are showing data for share class D.
* For example, a percentile ranking of 20% means that 80% of the funds in the peer group underperformed and 20% performed equal to or better than the BlackPoint Evolution Fund D.
** Morningstar EAA Fund EUR Moderate Allocation - Global

 

The fund’s equity allocation generated modest gains, supported by a recovery in Baidu and positive contributions from Allianz, EQT and Roche. Offsetting this, Broadcom, O’Reilly and Alibaba detracted from performance. Over the period, exposure to Novo Nordisk and the technology heavyweights Alphabet and Microsoft was increased, alongside a higher allocation to commodities. Conversely, positions in semiconductor stocks Broadcom and Nvidia were reduced.

The fixed income portfolio made a small negative contribution in December, driven in particular by losses in longer-dated (sovereign) bonds. By contrast, subordinated debt and high-yield bonds contributed positively, including positions such as Grupo Antolin, Air Baltic and Rakuten.

The combination of resilient growth and moderating price pressures positions the 2026 economic outlook as a key anchor and a counterweight to valuation concerns. We remain constructive on equities. Our investment approach continues to be disciplined and risk-aware, with a strong emphasis on diversification and selective opportunities.

 

Portfolio and Performance Information: Fund Details


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